TXFiscal - independent analysis of the state of Texas revenue and expenditures

Want to see regular, independent, objective analyses of Texas state revenue and expenditures along with other articles on state finance problems and solutions? Beginning today, you can. TXFISCAL will allow anyone access to a monthly/bimonthly analysis of state revenue and expenditures. There'll also be other reports dealing with other aspects of state finance and how it will affect the every day Texan. Additionally, readers will have access to the data underlying the reports so they can create their own analysis or draw related charts.


March 28 -- To Increase by How Much, That Is the Question

March 28 To Oh Lord when will they learn. - To support the Texas Commission on Texas School Finance, TEA made available to both the Commission and the public an analysis of school finance. The TEA analysis parallels analysis by the Legislative Budget Board (LBB), Texas Public Policy Foundation, and Center for Public Policy Priorities. All these analyses show public education revenue by source (state, local, federal) and/or expenditures by function. These analyzes also usually show revenue and expenditures in both current dollars and also in inflation-adjusted dollars. Unfortunately, these analyses use an improper price deflator, the CPI, to adjust public education expenditures. This analysis shows that using the appropriate price deflator. the State-Local implicit price deflator shows that real public education revenues and expenditures would be less using the S-L implicit price deflator.

March 18 -- Halfway Through FY18

March 18 Halfway Through FY18. - Both state tax collections and total revenue continue to increase at a rate substantially greater than in the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) released by the Comptroller’s Office on October 10, 2017. The growth rate in total state tax collections is over twice that predicted in the CRE. If this growth continues, Texans should expect that tax collections in FY18 will bring in $1.5 billion more than the current estimate. Almost 30 percent of the increase in tax collections comes from the ever increasing severance tax collections, which will increase transfers to the Rainy Day Fund and State Highway Fund. We should expect that around $1.3 billion will be due to each of these funds from FY18 collections.

With the increase in tax collections for FY18 and continued growth in FY19, the state should expect that the ending certification balance will be substantially greater than the $100 million in the CRE.