TXFiscal - independent analysis of the state of Texas revenue and expenditures

Want to see regular, independent, objective analyses of Texas state revenue and expenditures along with other articles on state finance problems and solutions? Beginning today, you can. TXFISCAL will allow anyone access to a monthly/bimonthly analysis of state revenue and expenditures. There'll also be other reports dealing with other aspects of state finance and how it will affect the every day Texan. Additionally, readers will have access to the data underlying the reports so they can create their own analysis or draw related charts.

March 28 -- To Increase by How Much, That Is the Question

  • March 25 - Revenue Situation at Halftime. - Two months ago Comptroller Glen Hegar released the Biennial Revenue Estimatewhich predicts total revenue available for general-purpose Legislative spending for the 2020-21 biennium.
    Lawmakers would have $8.9 billion (an 8.1 percent increase) more in additional revenue from the current two-year budget cycle which ends in August. The $110,197.0 available from this current biennium (FY18-19), is $2.5 billion more than in the July Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE), and $5.3 billion more than in the BRE provided to the last Legislature.
    We are now halfway through FY19 and with this analysis one can see the situation in General Revenue-Related Revenue through the first six months of FY19, and how these changes affect the amount now available for use by the current legislature. Bottom-line GRR should be $1 billion more for FY19 and at least $2 billion more in FY20-21

  • March 25 - Expenditure Situation at Halftime. - Over the past forty-five years, All Funds (AF) Net Expenditures in a fiscal year have declined only three times. Each of these times has been during this decade (see, Figure 1). Year-to-Date (YTD) FY19 AF expenditures through February declined by $1,129.2 million (-1.7 percent) compared to FY18 expenditure. This decline is primarily due to the $879.0 million (-5.8 percent) decrease in expenditures for Public Education. Along with the decline in Public Expenditures, Public Assistance expenditures also decreased by $248.7 million (-1.0 percent). Should the trend in FY19 expenditures continue for the remainder of the fiscal year, FY19 expenditures will decrease by 1.5 percent and biennium expenditures will increase by a minimal 1.8 percent. A biennial increase of 1.8 percent is about what the increase in the state's population will be, with no recognitation of inflation, which is expected to be 4.4 percent over the current bienniam.