March 18 Halfway Through FY18. - Both state tax collections and total revenue continue to increase at a rate substantially greater than in the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) released by the Comptroller’s Office on October 10, 2017. The growth rate in total state tax collections is over twice that predicted in the CRE. If this growth continues, Texans should expect that tax collections in FY18 will bring in $1.5 billion more than the current estimate.
Almost 30 percent of the increase in tax collections comes from the ever increasing severance tax collections, which will increase transfers to the Rainy Day Fund and State Highway Fund. We should expect that around $1.3 billion will be due to each of these funds from FY18 collections.
With the increase in tax collections for FY18 and continued growth in FY19, the state should expect that the ending certification balance will be substantially greater than the $100 million in the CRE.