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FY19 Analysis

March 25 - Revenue Situation at Halftime. - Two months ago Comptroller Glen Hegar released the Biennial Revenue Estimatewhich predicts total revenue available for general-purpose Legislative spending for the 2020-21 biennium.
Lawmakers would have $8.9 billion (an 8.1 percent increase) more in additional revenue from the current two-year budget cycle which ends in August. The $110,197.0 available from this current biennium (FY18-19), is $2.5 billion more than in the July Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE), and $5.3 billion more than in the BRE provided to the last Legislature.
We are now halfway through FY19 and with this analysis one can see the situation in General Revenue-Related Revenue through the first six months of FY19, and how these changes affect the amount now available for use by the current legislature.
March 25 - Expenditure Situation at Halftime. - Over the past forty-five years, All Funds (AF) Net Expenditures in a fiscal year have declined only three times. Each of these times has been during this decade (see, Figure 1). Year-to-Date (YTD) FY19 AF expenditures through February declined by $1,129.2 million (-1.7 percent) compared to FY18 expenditure. This decline is primarily due to the $879.0 million (-5.8 percent) decrease in expenditures for Public Education. Along with the decline in Public Expenditures, Public Assistance expenditures also decreased by $248.7 million (-1.0 percent).

Really Old Stuff
March 18 - To Increase by How Much, That Is the Question. - Both state tax collections and total revenue continue to increase at a rate substantially greater than in the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) released by the Comptroller’s Office on December 12, 2013. The growth rate in total state tax collections is over three times more than predicted in the CRE. Total state revenue is increasing at over twice the CRE rate of increase.
Feb. 19 - The Uptick Continues. - Both state tax collections and total revenue continue to increase at a rate substantially greater than in the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) released by the Comptroller’s Office on December 12, 2013. The growth rate in total state tax collections is almost three times more than predicted in the CRE. Total state revenue is increasing twice the CRE rate of increase.
Dec. 18 - Deja Vu All Over Again. - With the close of the State's fiscal year and release of the Certification Revenue Estimate, we can compare actual YTD collections with the revised estimate. Continuing with a conservative fiscal outlook, tax collections are estimated to increase by 2.4 percent in FY14 compared to actual YTD tax collections increasing by 6.9 percent. Should this differential continue, tax collections in FY14 should be almost $2 billion more than in the CRE.
Nov. 10 - A Billion Here, A Billion There, Are We Talking Real Money?. - Two months into FY14, both state collections and total revenue are exceeding the current revenue estimate. Tax collections through October increased by 7.5 percent compared to FY13, while total state revenue increased by 5.2 percent. Both these growth rates exceed the current estimated growth rate for FY14.
Sept. 25 - FY13 Cash Balance = $5.5 Billion. - The close of the state’s fiscal year showed significant improvement in the state’s fiscal condition. Tax collections exceed the Comptroller’s estimate for FY13, while state expenditures again declined. The result of increasing revenues and declining expenditures resulted in the cash balance (revenue – expenditures) of the state being $5.5 billion, the largest cash balance experienced this century.
Aug. 18 - Like the Phoenix, the Estimate Will Rise. State tax collection through July 2013 continue to increase at a rate greater than in the BRE (8.1% v. a revised 7.4%). With this improvement the ending balance (the "surplus") for this fiscal year should be $800 billion more and tax revenue for FY14-15 should be at least $5 billion more than in the current estimate.
July 18 - Old Man Money Just Keeps Rolling In. State tax collection through June 2013 continue to increase at a rate 50 percent greater than in the BRE (8.1% v. 5.4%). With this improvement the ending balance (the "surplus") for this fiscal year should be $800 billion more and for FY14-15, $3.9 billion more.
July 7 - Revenue Available Increased. Comptroller Combs released a letter at the beginning of each special session on revisions to the revenue estimate. In her July 1 letter, the Comptroller stated that "$683.1 million, of an estimated $100.7 billion available for general-purpose spending, remains unappropriated."
June 19 - Certifiable Balance Should Be Increased. State tax collection through May 2013 are increasing at a rate 50 percent greater than in the BRE (8.2% v. 5.4%). With this improvement the ending balance (the "surplus") for this fiscal year should be $850 billion more and for FY14-15, $4.2 billion more.
May 15 - Dollars for Roads and Public Ed. State tax collection through April 2013 are increasing at a rate 50 percent greater than in the BRE (8.3% v. 5.4%). With this improvement the ending balance (the "surplus") for this fiscal year should be $500 billion more and for FY14-15, $3 billion more.
April 18 - To Increase or Not to Increase. State tax collection through March 2013 are increasing at 8.6 percent, a rate 60 percent greater than in the BRE. With this improvement the ending balance (the "surplus") should be $9.4 billion.
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March 14 - Halftime reinforces the improvement the state has experienced through Feb. 2013. Taxes +$1.2 billion, ending balance (the "surplus") now $9.4 billion.
Feb. 12 - The 3R's documents the improvement the state has experienced through Jan. 2013. Taxes +$1.9 billion, ending balance (the "surplus") now $10.1 billion.
Jan. 15 - Commentary of BRE documents the improvement the state has experienced through Dec. 2012. Taxes +$2.2 billion, ending balance (the "surplus") now $10.3 billion.
Jan. 7 - Biennial Revenue Estimate 2014-2015 The Comptoller's estimate of revenue available for FY13 ($8.8 billion) and for FY14-15 ($101.4 billion).
Dec. 16 - Billions and Billions documents the improvement the state has experienced through the 1^st quarter of FY13.
Nov 30 - The 3R's³ the Rovian Revolution Revisited or what if Rove had supported another Texas governor.
Oct 31 - WTF³ how the legislature can immediately resolve the cuts to public ed and Medicaid.
Yes, We Are Better Off documents the significant improvement the state experienced in FY12.
The Rainy Day Fund balance = $8.1 billion, not too shabby.
Read A Perry’s budget compact a bullet point too many an editorial on our Governor's "call for truth in state budgeting and adding an amendment to the Texas Constitution that would limit state spending."